Predictability of aid: aid recipients and donors alike frequently voice concerns about the lack of predictability of development aid. The existing literature often treats predictability and volatility as closely related, but this paper shows that they are conceptually and empirically distinct. Using two main data sources, we demonstrate that, contrary to common belief, lack of predictability typically involves managing both aid shortfalls and windfalls, and hampers aid management even in countries with stable implementation of macroeconomic policies.